Trade up, down or stand pat? Plotting AFC teams' first-round draft strategy

With the NFL Draft looming April 25-27 in Detroit, front offices are busy fine-tuning strategies for the biggest three days of the league's offseason.

Should a team trade up, trade down or stand pat? Yardbarker NFL writers weigh in on how AFC teams should approach the first round.  

AFC East 

BUFFALO BILLS (First-round pick: 28th) | Trade up | Buffalo holds 11 picks in the draft, but seven of those selections are in the fifth round or later, so it'd be wise to package some of those selections to move up. Doing so could ensure the Bills land an explosive, big-bodied wide receiver such as LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. to replace Gabe Davis, who signed with the Jaguars in free agency.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (First-round pick: 21st) | Trade up | Miami only has six selections in the draft after losing its third-round pick for violating league policies on tampering and trading a fourth-rounder for edge-rusher Bradley Chubb in 2022. With several holes on the roster, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines, the Dolphins should move back in the first round to acquire additional mid-round picks.

NEW YORK JETS (First-round pick: 10th) | Trade up | The Jets don't necessarily need to move up, but considering GM Joe Douglas's job is on the line, he has little reason to hold onto draft picks. By trading up a few spots, New York can go all-in on its Aaron Rodgers-led offense by getting another premier pass-catcher for the four-time MVP, perhaps Washington's Rome Odunze.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (First-round pick: Third) | Stand pat | Although the Patriots could net at least an extra first-round pick for the third overall selection, they must select a quarterback, whether it's LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye. New England will likely pick in the top 10 again next year, and since the 2025 quarterback class isn't as highly regarded as this year's crop, it shouldn't pass up the opportunity to select a more talented prospect. — Colum Dell

AFC West 

DENVER BRONCOS (First-round pick: 12th) | Stand pat | The Broncos need a QB, but they’re not in a position to unload valuable draft capital, as they only have two picks through the first three rounds. Denver could still take a QB with the 12th overall pick, perhaps Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (First-round pick: 32nd) | Trade up | The Chiefs signed WR Marquise Brown to a one-year, $7M deal in free agency, but they still need another pass-catcher to improve their passing attack. In his latest mock draft, NFL.com’s Chad Reuter has them trading the 32nd pick to the Rams to move up to the 19th slot for Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who broke the 40-yard dash record (4.21 seconds) at the NFL Scouting Combine.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (First-round pick: 13th) | Trade up | The top QB prospects may be off the board when the Raiders make their selection. At the annual league meeting, Patriots HC Jerod Mayo said they would consider trading the third pick if someone made a huge offer. If the Raiders acquired it, they could target LSU QB Jayden Daniels or North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (First-round pick: Fifth) | Stand pat | The Chargers could receive a solid package for the fifth overall pick, but they need a stud WR after trading six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen to the Bears and releasing veteran WR Mike Williams. Los Angeles should consider Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU wideout Malik Nabers if it keeps its pick. — Clark Dalton

AFC North 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (First-round pick: 30th) | Stand pat | The Ravens could trade up as they have nine picks, but they should opt for quantity over quality after losing several key players in free agency. Plus, Baltimore’s biggest needs are offensive line and wide receiver, which are two of the deeper positions in the draft.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (First-round pick: 18th) | Trade up | The Bengals, on the other hand, have done a great job filling their vacancies in free agency, so trading up is very much in play for a team that has 10 selections. Cincinnati may also deal WR Tee Higgins, who requested a trade after being franchise-tagged; if so, the Bengals could be in play for one of the draft’s top playmakers.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (First-round pick: None) | Trade down | The Browns have only five picks and aren’t scheduled to make their first selection until pick No. 54. That may deter them from trading down, but having more capital will help salary cap-strapped Cleveland fill out the rest of its roster.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (First-round pick: 20th) | Trade up | The Steelers’ seven selections could help them move up to fill their biggest need, center, which is thin in the draft outside of Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson and West Virginia’s Zach Frazier. General manager Omar Khan was aggressive in trading up for Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones a year ago, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he made a similar move. — Aaron Becker

AFC South 

HOUSTON TEXANS (First-round pick: None) | Trade up | With no first-round pick after trading the No. 23 overall pick to the Minnesota Vikings, the Texans are presumably alright with not picking until 42nd overall. However, the team’s biggest area of need is cornerback, and it should leverage some of its multiple picks in Rounds 2, 4 and 7 to get back into the first round before the run on CBs happens.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (First-round pick: 15th) | Stand pat | Indianapolis needs secondary help, especially at cornerback, and moving up from 15 just doesn’t make sense to land one. Moving back (unless it’s a pick or two) doesn’t make sense, either, so the Colts should stay where they are and likely end up with the No. 1- or 2-ranked CB in the draft.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (First-round pick: 17th) | Stand pat | The Jaguars have three areas of need they must address in the draft — cornerback, wide receiver and offensive line. At 17th overall, Jacksonville could find a strong WR replacement for Calvin Ridley or take one of the top cornerbacks. The Jags lost CB Darious Williams in free agency and probably will lose CB Tre Herndon, who's a free agent.

TENNESSEE TITANS (First-round pick: Seventh) | Trade down | If quarterbacks go 1-4, that pushes players such as Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU WR Malik Nabers and Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt down an extra slot or two. If a team wants to come up for one of those three because they didn’t think they’d still be there, the Titans are in a good position to slide back a few picks, add more draft capital and still end up with a premium offensive tackle prospect. — Michael Gallagher